Is Bush's re-election really a 'mandate'?

Blogger MyDD makes some good points:
- This is the largest number of people who have ever voted AGAINST a president
- 1% more than 50% is not a mandate but a bare, thin, majority.
- At 80% approval after 9-11 and guaranteed a landslide election by prognosticators 2 years ago, only half the country supports him
- A president who leads a divided country owes it to all Americans to lead fairly or have his party face the consequences begining in 2006. No one else is here to blame.
Another Liberal Blog empathizes that Bush's victory is in fact the weakest incumbent reelection since, well, a long time.
- Assuming Bush gets New Mexico and Iowa, he will have gotten the lowest percentage of electoral votes (54%) of any incumbent running for reelection since Wilson. If those two states should swing Kerry's way (NM might), it'll be even lower.
- He will have won with the lowest percentage of the popular vote (51%) of any incumbent running for reelection since Truman (well, technically since Clinton, but he also ran against Perot, who was a more significant 3rd-party candidate than Thurmond and Wallace were in '48)
- He will have won by the lowest margin of the popular vote (3.5M) of any incumbent running for reelection since Truman (2.1M, and back then only 50M voted).
- He will have won the three states that put him over 270 (OH, NM and IA - assuming the last two go his way) by only 161,989 (not counting the provisional ballots, absentee, etc.).

If the word could have voted

Bushworld is not part of the world's realty based community.

...The United States would have a different President today - by far.

That's how America voted

Too much red on this chart.

Red: Republicans. Blue: Democrats. Otherwise no further commentary necessary.

With re-election U.S. voters justified Bush's atrocities

Tough, but true. Justin Podur writes on Znet:

It is time to admit something. The greatest divide in the world today is not between the U.S. elite and its people, or the US elite and the people of the world. It is between the U.S. people and the rest of the world. The first time around, George W. Bush was not elected. When the United States planted cluster bombs all over Afghanistan, disrupted the aid effort there, killed thousands of people, and occupied the country, it could be interpreted as the actions of a rogue group who had stolen the elections and used terrorism as a pretext to wage war. When the United States invaded Iraq, killing 100,000 at the latest count, it could be argued that no one had really asked the American people about it and that the American people had been lied to. When the United States kidnapped Haiti’s president and installed a paramilitary dictatorship, it could be argued that these were the actions of an unelected group with contempt for democracy.
With this election, all of those actions have been retroactively justified by the majority of the American people.

A right-wing republic?

From Counterpunch:
George Bush barely defeated John Kerry in the Electoral College, but he won the popular vote by a sizeable margin of 4 million across the country. Republicans increased their majority in Congress, while voters in 11 states voted to ban gay marriage. And California's referendum against "three strikes" sentencing laws also went down to defeat. Republicans - and social conservatives - swept the 2004 election, despite the extreme polarization of the nation's population.(...)
The conservative and Republican vote was higher than in 2000. The 55 percent voter turnout (higher than the 51 percent turnout in 2000, but not nearly as high as the 60 percent predicted) had been widely predicted to help push Kerry to victory. Instead, many new voters, mobilized by Republicans, went for Bush. Florida, Georgia, Virginia and Kentucky--which went Republican--did set record turnouts. Meanwhile, the student-aged population signed up by Democrats stayed home in roughly the same large proportions as in 2000. So much for benefits of Michael Moore and Bruce Springsteen stumping for Kerry.
Bush also won substantial votes from the rapidly withering traditional base of the Democratic Party. Here are some initial statistics (based on CNN exit polls, and therefore subject to change) that give some idea of the breakdown of the Democrats' traditional base:
- 23 percent of gays voted for Bush.
- 36 percent of union members voted for Bush (as did 40 percent of those with union members in their households).
- Of those earning $15,000-$30,000, 42 percent voted for Bush.
- 11 percent of Blacks voted for Bush.
- 44 percent of Latinos voted for Bush.

Bush continues to block the press

From President George W. Bush's November 4 press conference:
REPORTER: Mr. President -- thank you. As you look at your second term, how much is the war in Iraq going to cost? Do you intend to send more troops or bring troops home? And in the Middle East, more broadly, do you agree with [British Prime Minister] Tony Blair that revitalizing the Middle East peace process is the single most pressing political issue facing the world?
BUSH: Now that I've got the will of the people at my back, I'm going to start enforcing the one-question rule. That was three questions [laughter].
[...]
REPORTER: Thank you, Mr. President. How will you go about bringing people together? Will you seek a consensus candidate for the Supreme Court if there's an opening? Will you bring some Democrats into your Cabinet?
BUSH: Again, he violated the one-question rule right off the bat. Obviously, you didn't listen to the will of the people.
(Via the great website Media Matters for America)

Is the U.S. headed for an opposition press?

From PressThink:

John Kerry's defeat is only hours old. One of the first questions to occur to me is: will we see the fuller emergence of an opposition press, given that George W. Bush and the Republicans are to remain in office another four years? Will we find instead that an intimidation factor, already apparent before the election, will intensify as a result of Bush's victory?

Without value

Campaign Desk thinks it's problematic that in mainstream-mediaworld - second only to Hollywood in its population of heathens - "moral values" has become a euphemism for "conservative Christian morality." That choice of code words casts other moral systems as runners-up to righteousness.

Not our president

Protesters wearing gas masks and hoisting cardboard peace signs took to the streets of Portland on Wednesday, chanting "Not Our President, Not Our War."

Reactions from the world

The English newspaper Guardian writes:

Those outside America, in the chanceries of Europe and beyond, who hoped that this would be a passing phase, like a Florida hurricane that wreaks havoc only to blow over, will instead have to adjust to a different reality. (...) Now that fantasy will be shelved. The White House is not about to ditch the approach of the last four years. Why would it? Despite the mayhem and murder in Iraq, despite the death of more than 1,000 US soldiers and countless (and uncounted) Iraqis, despite the absence of weapons of mass destruction, despite Abu Ghraib, the Bush administration won the approval of the American people. If Bush had lost the neo-conservative project would have been buried forever. But he won, and the neo-cons will welcome that as sweet vindication.

From The Asia Times:

The United States may have gone to the polls as a divided, uncertain, paralyzed-by-fear nation. Today it's still a divided, uncertain, paralyzed-by-fear nation, but now with a clear mandate for the state really to rock the geopolitical boat.
The "most important election of a lifetime" has sent a clear message to the whole world: the face of America in the next four years - barring a Richard Nixon-style impeachment - will be of unilateralism, the "war on terror" possibly progressively escalating into a clash of civilizations. And pay attention to the "axis of evil" hit list - the official and the bootleg. Bush II will attack what it defines as "state terrorism" - Iran, Syria - instead of the global jihadi network. It will continue to rely on Pakistan to "decapitate" the odd "high-value al-Qaeda". It won't engage in diplomacy to address the political causes of terrorism. It won't engage in a cultural and ideological effort to try to counteract the global jihad - especially now that Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri have changed the rules of the asymmetrical game from a religious clash to a political struggle against imperialism.
Total concentration of right-wing power - legitimized by the popular vote: this is the new neo-conservative dream turned reality. So the road ahead is to flatten the Sunni stronghold of Fallujah in Iraq, bomb Iran because of its supposed nuclear aspirations, depose President Hafez Assad in Syria, crush the Palestinian resistance, and remodel the Middle East by "precision strike" democracy. There will be serious blowback.

Frontpage headline in today's edition of Switzerland's newspaper Blick:

Bush re-elected: Are 62 mio. Americans simply stupid?

Bush's brain stroke again

Bush's senior adviser Karl Rove - the mastermind behind his re-election campaign 'was behind the risky tactic of essentially ignoring undecided voters to concentrate on motivating the president's base - socially conservative Republicans,' Scripps Howard News Service reports. "It was Rove who developed 'The Final Five Days,' a plan to unleash a flood of Bush volunteers in the election's closing hours and contact every identified potential supporter in the campaign's massive database. It was this get-out-the-vote effort, the most ambitious in GOP history, that swung the balance in Bush's favor." Furthermore, it was Rove who "early on determined that the best way to defeat the Massachusetts senator, or any other Democrat, was to lacerate the other guy until he was no longer perceived as a credible option." Plus: The highly praised documentary Bush's brain gives a great insight in Rove's world. Watch it!

Lessons for the liberals

Great post-election article in The Nation magazine. Excerpt:

Progressives, who were on the defensive two years ago, added millions of new voters as well, and tapped a new energy and activism that will last far beyond November 2nd. The extremism and incompetence of this rightwing cabal has sharpened our focus to a razor's edge. But for me, one of the fundamental questions about this campaign has been whether you could defeat a terrible but clear incumbent without a substantive policy alternative, and this time at least we couldn't. Kerry offered intelligence, a return to fiscal discipline, a bulwark against a rightwing court, and a health plan that few understood. He failed to use the moral message of "Two Americas" to erode Bush's edge. He mounted a late challenge to Bush's disastrous war in Iraq-- but he also talked about "staying the course." That wasn't enough of a coherent positive, populist or moral message to complement the impressive mechanics. We've got to build a politics of conviction, of passion and substance. It's there but it needs to be built and fought for. And the lesser lessons, if that's the big one, are:

1) People really are confused and manipulated (we have a mainstream media that continues to focus on irrelevant stories--Swift Boat, Rathergate and all the rest--abrogating its responsibility to focus on what's important and significant; and too much of it keeps giving head instead of keeping its head.) This makes an expansion of the progressive media echo chamber all the more important; And,

2) Neoliberalism is broken beyond repair and people need to be offered a real alternative not just despair at this point. This is truly a non-violent Civil War between those who think government is basically screwed up and that they're on their own, and those who believe....what exactly? We've got to be much clearer on the latter.

But this morning, we woke to a country at war with itself--as well as Al Qaeda. As America fights Islamic fundamentalism abroad, progressives are re-fighting the Enlightenment here at home. (The two new Senators from Oklahoma and South Carolina are leaders of our homegrown Taliban.)

This is war at a very deep level about how this country will proceed and this war isn't over, it's just renewed. …

The American Right understands we are two nations, and cares less about healing than about holding power. A Bush wins forces us to understand, in a very deep way, what that means for us and for the values and institutions we care about. Not that they are wrong, or rejected or weighed down by "identity politics" or some other rationale for surrender. But that they are in desperate danger and we need to start thinking along the lines of how to resist, delay, deflect, oppose and ultimately defeat the assault on our freedoms. As progressives, we will need to marshal at least as much dedication, purpose, strategic focus and tactical ruthlessness …

And we should be thinking about the indispensable work of resistance. We need to identify legislative and administrative choke points where Bush's initiatives can be blocked, and make clear to both legislators and their constituents that the days of go-along in the interest of non-partisan comity have to stop. …

In the end, this election is about what kind of people we are, what kind of country we'll be. Half of the electorate dissents from Bushism. The election still represents an expression of the strength of opposition to the radical and reckless course Bush has followed, despite the ugly campaign.

Unlike 1972, when Democrats were wiped out everywhere - in 2004 there is an emerging progressive infrastructure capable of standing and fighting. Progressives should build on those structures put in place in this last cycle and redouble their commitment to economic justice, peace and environmental movements that can make real change.

Election analysis: the rednecks won

The Los Angeles Times analysis the results of the presidential election:

According to a nationwide Times exit poll of voters leaving polling places, more than half of Bush's voters cited moral issues as a principal reason for their support —
— more than any other issue, including even terrorism. In fact, morals trumped terrorism by seven percentage points in the Los Angeles Times poll.(...)

By contrast, nearly half of Kerry voters named the economy as their top concern — nearly double the number that picked moral issues.(...)

Just as in 2000, Bush on Tuesday mobilized a massive coalition of culturally conservative Americans, centered on married families, rural voters, and people who own guns or attend church regularly. Although Bush continued to enjoy overwhelming support from his conservative base, he had made only limited progress at expanding his reach among voters beyond it.

Kerry's coalition represented the mirror image of Bush's: He ran best among singles, urban voters and those who don't own guns or attend church regularly. Kerry also received a big boost from first-time voters, most of them young people, who tilted sharply in his direction, the Times Poll found.

Democrats ponder future

Senator John Kerry's "defeat has Democrats grappling with whether the party must make fundamental changes in philosophy to recapture the White House," the Wall Street Journal reports.
The Washington Post says many Democrats say they "need to restore the language of values to the party's rhetoric and to try to reconnect with people of faith."
Newsweek notes "the losing side always goes through a period of wailing and teeth-gnashing after an election, as the various factions grab for power in anticipation of the next election. It will be especially intense after two narrow, bruising losses."
Meanwhile, Dan Conley has re-launched his blog with this question: "How many elections will it take for Democrats to figure out that we don't know how to pick winning Presidential candidates?"
And Marshall Wittman warns Democrats not to wait for the inevitable scandals that emerge in second term presidencies. "Organization is fine -- ideas and message are far superior."
(Via Political Wire)

Fuck. It's over

Kerry has conceded. In his speech he concluded that he could not win the presidency, after realising that the outstanding votes in Ohio were not enough to enable him to carry the state. He also said:

In the days ahead, we must find common cause. We must join in common effort without remorse or recrimination, without anger or rancor. America is in need of unity and longing for a larger measure of compassion.
I hope President Bush will advance those values in the coming years.

The wrong guy won - against all common sense. What is it with this America?

John Edwards: We will fight

Bush won in Florida and is still ahead. I can't believe the race is that close. Apparently the huge voter turnout and the youth vote didn't give Kerry the advantage we all expected. It also doesn't look that good in Ohio, but there is still a chance. John Edwards just made a brief public statement:

"A long night, but we've waited four years for this victory we can wait one more night!
We promised you that every vote would count and every vote will be counted. We will fight for every vote. You deserve no less."

Ok. They're willing to fight. Still hopeful. Now I can go to sleep.

No final results, but Bush is leading

The election day is almost over. And I have a huge deja vu! It's 2000 all over again!

Projections are outstanding for only a handful of states with Ohio - with most of the votes counted but still too close to call - being the key. George W. Bush is ahead in projected Electoral College votes but the Kerry camps refuses to concede. "The vote count in Ohio has not been completed," Mary Beth Cahill, the Kerry campaign manager, said. "There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio."

The current results:
Bush:
249 electoral votes
54,846,554 popular votes (51%)

Kerry:
242 electoral votes
51,157,718 (48%)

For all the updated election results check out this great interactive map by C-Span.

Election Day

It's finally here. Election day. I am cautiously optimistic. Since the presidential campaign is officially over I am switching my political posts from my Electionary blog to the Beachnotes again. More to come ...